Publications & Podcasts
Effects of COVID-19 Related Cancer Screening Delays Are Predicted To Be Modest
Collaborating with epidemiologist Greta Bunin, PhD and internist Dr. Karen Johnston, Dave Nelson and Keith Passwater offer a projection of the incremental US deaths due to COVID-delayed colon and breast cancer screening.
Telemedicine in the New Health Economy
Keith Passwater and Doug Norris, in a project commissioned by the Society of Actuaries, seek to answer the question, Will increased telehealth access lead to more efficient delivery of care and cost reductions?
On Target - pursuing the quadruple aim in health care
In this article, Dave Nelson and Keith Passwater evaluate a variety of strategies intended to lower per capita medical cost. Health risk-takers would be wise to review initiatives based on their intent and ability to impact multiple levers simultaneously. Decision-makers should also remember—physician engagement is critical.
Presentation: Could a Unicorn bend the trend? (Society of Actuaries Virtual Health Conference)
Amy Christensen, Partner at Vistria, joined Dave Nelson and Keith Passwater in delivering this presentation. Vast sums of private equity are flowing into start-ups intent on lowering health care trend. This presents a huge challenge for insurance company actuaries to stay current on such start-ups and the innovations they're advancing. Further, it can be overwhelming to evaluate the many vendors eager to sell their services to the company. This session will provide an overview of the start-up and private equity process, review some of the emerging innovators, and discuss approaches to evaluate their Return on Investment (ROI) as efficiently as possible.
Covid-19: A Health Actuarial perspective on the impact to Financial risk bearers
Many of us are thinking about the human toll of the recent novel coronavirus outbreak. Certainly, our thoughts and prayers are with those who’ve lost loved ones to the virus already, those currently suffering with associated illnesses, and those whose lives have been disrupted with quarantine. As health actuaries, our thoughts secondarily turn to the health cost of this outbreak.
This article discusses the current available data and recommends actions for health actuaries to address the pandemic on behalf of health financial risk bearers (insurers, self-funded employers/plan sponsors and others at risk such as health systems under value based contracts).
Podcast: Will Pharmacy Cost Keep Rising?
For the Society of Actuaries, Dave Dillon interviews Dave Nelson, Dr. Peter Canning and Keith Passwater on the topic of rising pharmacy cost, its drivers, the outlook and opportunities for health actuaries to apply their talents to this vexing pattern.
Flu Review- a brief history and analysis of influenza risk
Influenza (flu) is an infectious respiratory illness caused by a family of influenza viruses. Common symptoms of the flu include fever, cough, sore throat, runny nose, muscle aches, headaches, and fatigue. The United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimates that each year since 2010 in the United States, the flu has caused between 9 million and 36 million illnesses, 140,000 to 710,000 hospitalizations, and has resulted in 12,000 to 56,000 deaths.[1] The annual health care cost for this recurring illness averages greater than $10 billion in the U.S. alone.[2] And lost productivity due to employee absences contributes billions more in cost each year.
This article will offer background on the flu, observations on the actuarial role, and suggested sources of data.
Drilling Down on Drug Prices - An Actuary’s Perspective
Extending life and improving quality of life for literally millions, drug treatments such as aspirin, penicillin, insulin, AZT, cancer drug Herceptin, Harvoni, and Lipitor are nothing short of miracle drugs. Recently developed therapies are also impressive, such as single-dose Kymriah, which has an unprecedented 83 percent remission rate for children with acute lymphoblastic leukemia.[1] Another example is the newly available gene therapy Luxturna, which can cure blindness in carefully selected patients.
Such therapies can achieve outcomes that are truly miraculous for those cured patients; they can also be staggeringly expensive.
Managing Health Insurance Company Risks in a Recession
The current U.S. market expansion started in the third quarter of 2009, making this the longest in U.S. history, surpassing the record 120-month expansion of the 1990s.1And, given our unsettling memories of past recessions, we thought it might be useful to contemplate how insurance com-panies would be impacted by the next recession in similar—and new—ways. While we had our own thoughts on this, we deter-mined to gather a range of input through interviews with several health-insurer chief actuaries of companies large and small.